Legal cannabis spending in Canada is set to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 44.4 percent from $569 million in 2018, the first year of adult-use sales, to nearly $5.2 billion by 2024, according to a new report “Canada Leads The Way on Global Cannabis Legalization” released today by Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics. The report is the first to provide detailed provincial-level forecasts of the Canadian market showing the expected impact of the varying regulatory regimes being adopted by provinces.
“Canada is the largest country in the world to legalize cannabis and because of this, it has dramatically reshaped the cannabis investment landscape,” said Troy Dayton, CEO of the Arcview Group. “What’s been missing is a realistic view of the current and forecasted size of the domestic market that operators and investors could use to plan their future moves in Canada. Now, with a solid grounding in newly released data from the Ottawa government, we can offer that forecast and, critically, a briefing on the regulatory and market issues driving the forecast at the provincial level.”
The new report states that while Alberta has just 11 percent of Canada’s population, it was among the provinces best ready for the October 17 launch of adult-use sales. As a result, the province’s 2018 sales were 28 percent of national sales.
“A number of factors caused 2018 sales to fall short of expectations: a delayed launch, few retail locations, supply shortages, limited selection of non-flower products,” said Tom Adams, Editor-in-Chief of Arcview Market Research and Managing Director of BDS Analytics Industry Intelligence. “These issues will also hinder the markets in 2019 and will have to be solved in order to reach the levels of growth we’re projecting, and thereby squeeze out the illicit trade.”
Among the other key findings in the report:
- Spending on adult-use cannabis is forecast to grow from $112.5 million in the partial year of 2018 to almost $4.8 billion by 2024.
- After four years of growth at a 120% CAGR from 2014, medical cannabis spending will decline at a -3% CAGR, from $456.6 million in 2018 to $381.4 million in 2024.
- The five largest Canadian licensed producers – Canopy Growth, Tilray, Aurora, Cronos and Aphria – closed out the year of 2018 at a combined market capitalization of $22.8 billion.
- The limits on edibles and concentrates are expected to be loosened in October of this year but will substantially crimp Canadian market growth this year. Those categories have been the key drivers of market growth in legal US states.
- On the other hand, by defining “adults” as those over 18-years-of-age (19 in some provinces) rather than 21 as in all US states, Canada has given itself a much better chance of reaching a key policy goal of legalization: minimizing the illicit market.
The 40+ page report is available for $297 or as part of the Cannabis Intelligence Briefing Series subscription service from Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics for $1,975.
About Arcview Market Research:
Since 2011, Arcview Market Research has published over 20 reports analyzing and forecasting the rapidly evolving cannabis space. Arcview’s flagship annual report, The State of Legal Marijuana Markets has become the industry standard for market analysis and data in the sector. In 2017, Arcview Market Research partnered with BDS Analytics to add more robust point-of-sale data and consumer insights to its offerings. Arcview Market Research is a project of The Arcview Group. Founded in 2010, The Arcview Group is responsible for a number of groundbreaking ventures in the cannabis industry. The Arcview Investor Network includes more than 600 accredited investors who have put more than $240 million behind 200 companies. In 2015 Arcview became a partner in Canopy, the first seed-stage mentor-driven business accelerator. Arcview is also co-founder of Cannasure Insurance Services, the leading provider of business insurance to the cannabis industry. Forbes Magazine recently named Arcview among the top 5 financial firms in the cannabis sector.
About BDS Analytics:
Headquartered in Boulder, Colo., BDS Analytics provides businesses with comprehensive, actionable, and accurate cannabis market intelligence and consumer research. The company provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market by producing insights from dispensary point-of-sale systems through its market-leading GreenEdgeTM platform, driving consumer research with its Cannabis Insights Group, and generating market-wide cannabis industry financial projections through its Industry Intelligence Group. To learn more about how you can utilize BDS Analytics’ superior market research, please visit www.bdsanalytics.com.